PANews October 14 news: Bitcoin has pulled back from around $86,000 in early October and has been oscillating in the $81,000 to $84,000 range in recent days, while the U.S. dollar has strengthened and U.S. Treasury yields have remained elevated over the same period. In response, Huobi HTX chief analyst Cloud believes that the possibility of the oscillation range breaking downward is greater. The September ISM services prices paid index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022, and the University of Michigan 1-year inflation expectation rebounded to 4.7% in October. The simultaneous rise in the prices subindex and inflation expectations means the probability of CPI exceeding expectations on Thursday is not low. Once that materializes, year-end rate hike pricing will be further reinforced, and the lower bound of $81,000 will be tested first; only if CPI comes in below expectations will a breakout above the upper bound of $84,000 be sustainable.
The recent continued decline in chip stocks mainly stems from the repricing within the sector of the pace of AI capital expenditure and hardware profit expectations, and is an industry alpha event. By contrast, Bitcoin's drawdown has been noticeably smaller, indicating that its current pricing anchor is more skewed toward macro liquidity, and its correlation with the AI narrative is weakening, with the drivers of the two diverging. However, this divergence is temporary. Once the U.S. dollar and long-end rates regain dominance in pricing, the linkage will quickly strengthen again, and the CPI release on Thursday evening is the nearest testing window.