Huatai Securities: It is difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates continuously in October. It will raise interest rates again in December under the base case

Odaily Planet Daily News Huatai Securities pointed out that the September non-agricultural report was lower than expected, and the urgency of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in a short period of time has decreased. Due to the large fluctuations in non-farm payroll data in a single month, based on the three-month average, the number of new non-farm payrolls is 51,000, which is close to the equilibrium employment level. The superimposed unemployment rate is still at a low level, indicating that the job market is still relatively stable but cannot be said to be tense. Non-farm payrolls weakened in September, coupled with a decline in wage growth. Real income slowed in September, and household consumption may not be able to continue its strong performance in August. Looking forward, the forward-looking indicator NFIB's hiring intentions shows that non-farm payrolls may still be weak in October, but may rebound thereafter. Therefore, Huatai Securities believes that it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates continuously in October. Under the base case, it will raise interest rates again in December. (Golden Ten)